Wagons spotted at the Oldsmobile Homecoming, 6/17/23

I brought one of my Toronados to this event. It's billed as the largest annual gathering of Oldsmobiles and is hosted by the R. E. Olds Chapter of the Olds Club of America. I would say that there were easily 500 cars there, and that's typical. The weather this year could not have been better. 75 degrees, light breeze, no clouds. Lots of spectators, too.

I counted a total of 19 station wagons, with the earliest being a 1950 88 Futuramic woodie and the latest being a 1992 Custom Cruiser Hearse conversion. There were eight Vista Cruisers, seven of which were from the raised roof era. There was only one clamshell-era Custom Cruiser and only one from the 1977-1990 generation.


1950 88 Futuramic woodie






The first of two 1958 Super 88 Fiestas





The second one.





1962 Super 88 Fiesta






1965 F-85 Deluxe






1970 Cutlass wagon race car







The first of four 1970 Vista Cruisers.




The second one.




The third one.




The fourth one. Indy pace car.

 

1971 Custom Cruiser












The first of three 1972 Vista Cruisers.





The second one.





The third one.





1973 Vista Cruiser.





1983 Cutlass Cruiser diesel.







1986 Firenza. That's my '78 Toro right behind it.









1986 Custom Cruiser. This one was not in the show but rather was parked over by the registration entrance. One of the chapter members apparently owns it. But it's a wagon, and all wagons get photographed!







1992 Custom Cruiser Hearse.






Finally, of course, my car basking in the sun.

 

great pictures. thanks!

 

Ditto

 

NICE and thank you for the pictures!

 

I'm really impressed with the '58 Super 88 Fiesta. I'm an old time car fan from way back and I don't believe I ever actually saw one. I see a little Nomad in the car. I did a little research and see that they only made 5,175 of them. Unfortunately, back in the day when cars like these got a little old, they got junked. There's probably less than 1000 out there now.

 

A little clarification is in order here.

I misspoke above when I said that the two ‘58 Olds wagons were Super 88s. The green one is a Super 88. The blue one is a Dynamic 88. Let’s start with the first one I showed, the blue one.

According to an information plaque displayed by the owner (which I didn’t show a picture of earlier), it’s a “Fiesta Station Wagon.” Station wagons were made in both the Dynamic 88 and Super 88 lines, and both were called Fiestas.



He quotes a production number of 3,323. That corresponds to the number of Dynamic 88 wagons produced for 1958. He also says that it is one of the last 24 known to be in existence, which is probably correct and in line with vehicle scrappage statistics (more about that in a minute).

The other Fiesta wagon at the show, the green one, is a Super 88. Production of 1958 Super 88 Fiesta wagons is the number you quote, 5,175.

Here's the information card for the Super 88.




Both Super 88 and Dynamic 88 Fiestas had “Fiesta” scripts on the back end of the rear fenders. The Super 88 Fiesta had “Super 88" scripts on the front end of the front fenders. Dynamic 88 Fiestas had only “Eighty-Eight” spelled out in words on the front fenders.


Now, about the number surviving. People usually greatly overestimate how many of a particular model are still on the road decades later. According to a study by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1996, a very average number is that about 1% of a vehicle’s original production is likely to be still on the road after 25 years. Of course, this varies greatly by make, model, body style, and so forth.

You can see the full, 34-page paper here

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1996/199640/199640pap.pdf

but the relevant graph is on page 33, and I've reproduced it below. The oldest models included in the study, 1960 models, were down to about 12% survival after 15 years. After about 25 years, it settles at around 1% and tends to stay there because some cars are kept as collectibles or just survive because they're well cared for.






Here's another study done by the EPA in 2016. From this chart, for a 25-year-old car, the Estimated Survival Rate is shown as 0.040, which translates to 4%. According to this chart, the survival rate drops to 1% after 29 years.

For this study, they were estimating the future survival rate for then-current new cars. Cars nowadays tend to last longer than cars of 50 and 60 years ago, so if it was estimated that it would take 29 years for the survival rate of a 2016 model to drop to 1%, it's likely to be less than 29 years, perhaps much less, for the survival rate of a 1956 or 1966 model to drop to 1%.





As we all know, coupes and convertibles tended to be viewed more as future collectibles than four-door sedans and station wagons, and so the former tended to be kept in greater numbers than the latter. Station wagons have always been seen as utility vehicles that were driven into the ground and that have only recently been coming into vogue as a collectible, so it’s likely that their survival rate is around the 1% value or less.

So this suggests that the number of Dynamic 88 Fiestas still on the road is more like 33 and the number of Super 88 Fiestas is more like 52 (to take 1% of their original production numbers). The owner of the Dynamic says that there are 24 known to be in existence, which is in line with the statistical expectation. Of course, there is no way to determine the number of survivors precisely because there is no database to search and no requirement by owners to report to anyone that their car exists.

My wild-ass guess is that, with a total of about 8,500 Fiesta wagons of both models produced for 1958, maybe something between 75 and 200 are still around today. With these models becoming more popular, people may be scouring junkyards for these to resurrect and bring back to life examples that had previously been considered scrapped.

 

Thanks for the clarification.

Also good info, although I say the chart above is generalizing and I don't totally agree with it specifically. Nomads would be one example. For the low number of '55-'57's produced (roughly 23,000, without looking it up and getting an exact total), there are plenty of them still around.

Also '67-'72 Chevy trucks as another example, now between 51 and 56 years old, which is not even charted above, there are still a very large number of them still around in comparison to the amount made.

Which kind of proves a point of mine. Brands can vary and Chevys seem to be more preserved than most other brands. Not just that I'm a Chevy fan, lol.

Still wish I got to see a '58 Fiesta somewhere through the years though.

 

I'll take the 1962 Super 88 Fiesta

 

Nice pictures! But I think you missed my white Cutlass Cruiser. I was there from 8 till the last award was announced. I can just see the roof of mine over the roof of your Toro.

I’m not on FB but my gf pulled these from their page. 500 cars was an excellent estimate.

 

I did! My apologies.

 

Of course the charts and graphs are generalizing. That's the whole point. Specific cars and specific brands will have different survival rates. But Fiestas are not going to have a 20% survival rate, which is what it would be if 1000 out of 5000 made were still around.

The '55 to '57 Chevys, Nomads or otherwise, are going to be the perfect example of cars that don't follow these averages. Those cars have been popular since the day they were made, and every last one of them that exists has been saved and restored or modified. So the survival rate of these cars is well above the 1%. But that doesn't change the validity of the studies. For every '57 Chevy that was saved, some other, less desirable '50s car was sent to the scrap heap.


And this comment really doesn't say anything.

What is the definition of "a very large number?" There is none. You see lots of them at car shows, and so you conclude that they were saved in relatively large numbers. But this is not at all likely. Anecdotal evidence, such as counting them at car shows. is meaningless. If that's all we needed to do, neither the EPA or the Federal Reserve would have needed to do their studies.

More than any other type of vehicle, pickup trucks were pretty much used up and thrown away. When they were new, they were seen strictly as utility vehicles, and no one thought to save them because they might one day be desirable collector cars. Many of the trucks you see now have likely been rescued from junkyards and restored precisely because they have become more valuable in recent years and the cost of doing so is worth it. But they were not saved since new in disproportionately large numbers like the mid-50s Chevys were.

 

I'm not dis-agreeing with you there. I know very little about old Oldsmobiles. That was just a rough guess. And actually I was right, there are less than 1000 of them left, lol.

Glad to see that you agree me. That's all I was saying...

Your opinion. I know what I'm talking about. I own 3 of these trucks myself and am a member of many truck sites. The '67-'72 Chevy and GMC trucks just so happens to be the most popular older model truck in the US. No, I don't have any stats, never really had any need to research them. But I'll say this. Why do you think there are so many '67-'72 Vendors out there? As well as the popularity of '67-'72 Chevy online truck sites?

And just to add a little extra, these trucks are so popular that if you have a Frame, you can just about build a whole original type truck from scratch. There is no way the industry is going invest all that money to just sell a few.

I'm done here, lol.

 

Looks like a cool show. Would have been sensory overload for me

Interesting discussion about the survival rate. I think there are tons of variables, so it's tough to come up with anything more than an average.
I think geographical area can play into the numbers too. Around here there are very few 60's-70's cars that are sitting around unrestored in barns, fields and garages. Sure there are some, but not a ton. However, there are copious amounts of 60's-70's pickup trucks. They are everywhere. I can't go more than a mile without seeing a 60's-70's truck just sitting in the sun, right where it was left decades ago. The fact that trucks have a certain "usability" factor that seems to extend way beyond the normal life of a car probably plays directly into this. That coupled with the fact that we have a dry, arid climate they don't rust away and become one with the earth. It would be interesting to see the difference in the survivability of pickups vs passenger cars.

 

Thanks for all the pictures!
I'd love to have that '86 Custom Cruiser!